Blockbusters Of The Future?

What will be the blockbuster drugs of the not-too-distant future? Thomson Reuters has some predictions. Here they are, followed by 2010 forecasts.

Consensus sales forecasts for world’s top 10 drugs in 2014:
1. Avastin (cancer) Roche $8.9 bln
2. Humira (arthritis) Abbott (ABT.N) $8.5 bln
3. Enbrel (arthritis) Pfizer(PFE.N)/Amgen(AMGN.O) $8.0 bln
4. Crestor (cholesterol) AstraZeneca (AZN.L) $7.7 bln
5. Remicade (arthritis) Merck(MRK.N)/J&J(JNJ.N) $7.6 bln
6. Rituxan (cancer) Roche $7.4 bln
7. Lantus (diabetes) Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) $7.1 bln
8. Advair (asthma/COPD) GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) $6.8 bln
9. Herceptin (cancer) Roche $6.4 bln
10.NovoLog (diabetes) Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) $5.7 bln

Consensus forecasts for 2010:
1. Lipitor (cholesterol) Pfizer $11.7 bln
2. Plavix (anticlotting) Sanofi/Bristol (BMY.N) $9.6 bln
3. Advair (asthma/COPD) GlaxoSmithKline $9.0 bln
4. Remicade (arthritis) Merck/J&J $7.4 bln
5. Enbrel (arthritis) Pfizer/Amgen $7.1 bln
6. Humira (arthritis) Abbott $6.8 bln
7. Avastin (cancer) Roche $6.7 bln
8. Rituxan (cancer) Roche $6.1 bln
9. Diovan (hypertension) Novartis $6.0 bln
10.Crestor (cholesterol) AstraZeneca $5.8 bln

Plenty of cancer and arthritis drugs atop both lists. But diabetes drugs are new to the 2014 list. And the blockbusters won’t be quite as blockbuster-y– the sales predictions for 2014′s #1 are lower than 2010′s #3. Lisa emailed me to say that it’s worth noting how many of the 2014 list are biologics as opposed to small molecules, meaning those long biologic patent lives matter. (Herceptin was approved in 1998, just one year after Plavix, but Plavix will go off-patent in 2011 while Herceptin will still be patent-protected in 2014). She also sees the mark of deals:

Roche is looking pretty good, all due to Genentech. Pfizer, not so much—if they hadn’t bought Wyeth they wouldn’t even have made it onto the list..

I was getting a little depressed at the fact that no drugs in clinical trials today were on the 2014 list-all the predicted top ten are already FDA approved. But it could take a while to ramp up to the kinds of sales numbers in that top ten, Lisa says.

So then the real fun is predicting #11-20. Anyone want to hazard a guess?

Author: Carmen Drahl

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2 Comments

  1. Perhaps it’s not really a surprise, but the “diseases of the elderly” nature of the 2014 list is pretty apparent.

    I guess we’ll all be there someday.

  2. Indeed. Though clearly it’s still going to take a couple of years to figure out whether we’re on the right track for the ‘disease of the elderly’ that’s glaring in its omission– Alzheimer’s.

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