The Enterprise Ethane Terminal Is Quite Large (UPDATED)
Apr24

The Enterprise Ethane Terminal Is Quite Large (UPDATED)

As you may have heard, Enterprise Products Partners plans to build an ethane export terminal in Texas. It will have a capacity of 240,000 barrels of ethane per day. Let's convert that number from the oil perspective into the petrochemical one. According to John Stekla, formally the olefins guru at IHS and now with Williams Cos., 1 million metric tons of ethylene production consumes about 63,000 barrels per day of ethane. So that means that the Williams facility, IF it ran at full capacity would export enough ethane to feed 3.8 million metric tons of ethylene production. That is more than two new world scale ethylene plants. You may be wondering why I have CAPITALIZED, italicized, and bolded the word if in the preceding paragraph. Dow CEO Andrew N. Liveris, at least, is criticizing the project and doesn't seem to think it would run at full capacity. Dow reflexively complains about every development that could mean petrochemical feedstocks leaving the U.S. They have been fighting hard to block Department of Energy approval of LNG export facilities to non Free Trade Agreement countries. Bloomberg reporter Jack Kaskey knows all this and asked Liveris for his take on the ethane export terminal. Upon hearing an utterance that ends in a question mark, Liveris started talking. "It's high risk, because the oil-gas arbitrage that we have baked into our assumptions for our investments is half of what it is today." In other words, oil prices will decline relative to gas prices, which would make the export terminal less attractive. "There is nothing that we see as concerning about that announcement," he added. (Every time "concerning" is said when "disconcerting" is meant, a kitten falls down a well.) Chemical Notebooks take: If the arbitrage is so fleeting, why is Dow building so much ethylene and propylene capacity on the premise of an enduring advantage? Moreover, if Enterprise truly intends to build the terminal then Enterprise believes that the project will earn its cost of capital. For that matter, companies such as Ineos seem to think that importing ethane from the U.S. also earns the cost of capital of building receiving facilities. What we have here is a mere difference of opinion. Either that, or Liveris isn't being serious in his assessment or Enterprise isn't really considering building the terminal. I would add that the premise of the investment is a big glut of ethane. The petrochemical industry isn't building capacity fast enough to soak it all up. The Enterprise project is timed for 2016, a little in advance of the flood of new ethane capacity. It could be that Enterprise needs to export...

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Study: Shale Offers Hope For Sunoco Pa. Refinery
Jun28

Study: Shale Offers Hope For Sunoco Pa. Refinery

The advent of natural gas from shale could potentially resurrect an old 175,000 bpd Sunoco refinery in Marcus Hook, Pa., near Philadelphia, according to a new report issued by the consulting firm IHS. The report brainstorms redevelopment concepts and was commissioned by the Delaware County Council, which wants to recover some of the 500 jobs lost when the refinery closed back in December. The Council and IHS came up with ideas that were a lot more creative than what I have usually seen driving by old industrial properties in New Jersey: 1) Leave it to rust until Mother Nature reclaims it. 2) Tear it down and build retail on it. All of the report's proposals involve hydrocarbon processing of one kind of another. Several of the ideas singled out in the report as having high market viability are relevant to chemicals. These are: 1) Propane Dehydrogenation: Braskem has a polypropylene plant downstream from the refinery and, as I have explained before, is likely on the hunt for feedstock. 2) Integrated ethane cracker complex: ANOTHER cracker? 3) Natural gas liquids processing. Out of these my favorite is the dehydrogenation idea. Though, I have always preferred Philadelphia to Pittsburgh as a location for a Northeast cracker. (Better hydrocarbon infrastructure, plus I can look at it when I pass by on Amtrak on the way back from HQ). NGL processing is promising, too. But why stop there and not create a market for the liquids nearby? The report looked at other options, too. Refined petroleum products storage (boring!), natural gas power generation (bleh!), LNG export terminal (yeah, THAT will happen so close to Philly), gas-to-liquids production (that could cost up to $6 billion, so forget it). Cool report. Kudos to IHS and Delaware County for a lot of creative...

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Monaca, Pa!
Mar15

Monaca, Pa!

Shell Chemical has selected the Pittsburgh area town of Monaca, Pa., as the site of its new ethylene cracker complex. Actually it will be in Potter and Center Townships, which are near Monaca, Pa. (Pop. 6,286, according to Wikipedia). But that narrows it down a lot more than what Shell was previously saying: “I don’t know, Appalachia somewhere or something.” Monaca is a bit of a chemical town. It is host to a Nova complex that makes Arcel polystyrene resins for foams and expandable polystyrene. Nova calls this the Beaver Valley site. (If that name conjures an image of a valley teaming with beavers felling trees willy nilly, I know the feeling.) This doesn’t mean that the plant is a done deal. As its press release explains: “The next steps for this project include additional environmental analysis of the preferred Pennsylvania site, further engineering design studies, assessment of the local ethane supply, and continued evaluation of the economic viability of the project.” The company isn’t saying much more about the project. It will feature an ethylene cracker and downstream polyethylene and ethylene glycol plants. We already knew about that. There’s nothing new about the size or the timing. I do have a couple of thoughts about the project: 1) Isolated ethylene and derivatives complexes never work out. If the ethylene cracker goes down, how do you run the derivatives plants and where does the ethane feedstock go? If one of your derivatives complexes goes down, do you run the cracker at reduced rates? It would be nice to see another cracker complex built in the neighborhood that would be connected to the Shell site. I suspect that we’ll probably hear from another company with cracker plans in the region before long. 2) I doubt Shell will build its own polyethylene plant. It hasn’t had any skin in the polyolefins game since it sold its stake in Basell to Access Industries in 2005. I am expecting a partner of some kind on the polyethylene unit. If it does go it alone, I would think that the plant would spew out commodity grades of polyethylene. One example of such a product would be high-density polyethylene for extrusion blow molding—used to make milk jugs. Shell would need something that is relatively easy to sell. Also, the company wouldn’t want to do a lot of switching of grades at the plant because of potential problems with excess ethylene, as I mentioned above. All this aside, it is great to see such a big chemical plant being contemplated for the...

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Whoa! That’s A Lot Of Ethane
Nov17

Whoa! That’s A Lot Of Ethane

A new report from BENTEK Energy and Turner, Mason & Co. says that because of shale, we should expect a 40% increase in natural gas liquids production in five years. The increase amounts to 950,000 barrels per day of new natural gas liquids by 2016. That is an extraordinary amount of new feedstocks for the chemical industry. I ran my own estimates of how much ethylene production all these NGLs can support. I assumed 75% ethane content in the NGLs. I came up with 11 million metric tons of ethylene per year. These NGLs would also yield about 3.7 million metric tons of propylene (assuming propane from the NGLs is dehydrogenated) and other stuff. If the report, and the Chemical Notebook’s estimates, are correct, or nearly correct, then all the announcements we’ve been hearing about new ethylene capacity aren't nearly tapping out shale’s potential for petrochemicals. John Stekla, CMAI’s director of ethylene, gave a recent presentation where he forecast about 6 million metric tons of new ethylene capacity by 2016. (see slide 29). If not feedstocks, there is a factor that would limit the amount of new ethylene capacity that can be built. That is markets. Can the world really swallow more than 11 million metric tons of polyethylene, vinyl chloride monomer, ethylene oxide, and other derivatives from the U.S.? The world ethylene market today, Stekla points out, is around 120 million metric tons. My own thoughts are that we probably will see more capacity announcements in the U.S., though not to the tune of another 5 million metric...

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Say What, WSJ?
Oct31

Say What, WSJ?

Here’s an article from today’s Wall Street Journal on companies pulling back in Europe because of the financial crisis there. It contains this passage: Other U.S. companies retrenching because of weakness in Europe include Dow Chemical Co., which in the fourth quarter plans to idle about four million tons of production of naphtha, a material used in plastics manufacturing. It apparently comes from this exchange in the conference call: Brian Maguire - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division This is actually Brian Maguire on for Bob this morning. I want to follow up on the previous couple of questions on idling in Europe and Asia. You mentioned a couple million pounds could be idled. Do you expect Dow or any of the JV partners to participate in that idling or do you think that it will come more from the competition? Andrew N. Liveris More from the competition. I did actually say a couple of million tons and actually, we've identified -- you know us well when we do this, we've identified about 4 million tons of vulnerable production right now based on pure naphtha cracker plays mostly in Europe but also some in Asia. There are a couple things wrong with the WSJ article: 1) Dow doesn’t make naphtha. Liveris was referring to naphtha-based ethylene production. 2) Liveris was speculating on what the broader industry might do, (at least in Europe and Asia) not on what Dow Chemical will do in the fourth quarter. (Dow doesn’t even have 4 million metric tons of ethylene capacity in Europe.) UPDATE: Now the WSJ story comes with a correction: Corrections & Amplifications Dow Chemical Co. estimates other industry competitors will idle about four million tons of production of naphtha, a material used in plastics manufacturing, in the fourth quarter. A previous version of this article incorrectly said Dow Chemical plans to idle about four million tons of production of naphtha. That's half right. It corrects the bit that is most important for Dow: that it isn't Dow capacity that would be idled. But it still implies that it is the raw material, naphtha, that is being idled, not the products, ethylene, propylene, etc. Close enough, I guess....

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