An economic indicator for the contract API market arrived this week. Make of it what you will:
Growth in the global pharmaceuticals market is poised to rebound from 3-4% in 2012 to 5-7% by 2016, according to a new report from the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics. Much of the growth will take place in emerging markets, with small-molecule generics experiencing the most rapid increase in sales, the report says.
IMS estimates that global spending will increase from $956 billion in 2011 to nearly $1.2 trillion in 2016. Patent expiries and cost containment actions by insurers and other payers will crimp spending on branded drugs, which are predicted to grow at less than 3% annually.
Spending on medicines in developed nations will increase by as much as $70 billion overall between 2011 and 2016, following an increase of $104 billion from 2006 to 2011. Despite the wave of patent expiries, expected to peak this year, spending in the U.S. will grow by up to $45 billion over the next five years, IMS says, a 1-4% per year increase, thanks to new drugs targeting unmet medical needs and expanded access through the Affordable Care Act. In Europe, economic austerity programs and healthcare cost-containment initiatives will limit growth at 2% annually over the next five years.
Spending in emerging markets is expected to double over the same period to as much as $375 billion, driven by rising incomes and government-sponsored programs to increase access to drugs.
Branded drug sales, at $596 billion in 2011, could increase to between by as much as 3% annually to between $615- and $645 billion. On the other hand, IMS sees spending on generics increasing from $242 billion in 2011 to $400- to $430 billion by 2016.
The report also sees an uptick ahead in the launch of new molecular entities (NMEs), with 32- to 37 launched annually through 2016. The report sees between 160 and 185 NMEs introduced between 2011 and 2016 compared to 145 between 2007 and 2011.
[Photo courtesy of Accelrys]