When the second quarter ended, drop-in cellulosic biofuels maker KiOR was in the process of ramping up production at its first large-scale (eventually 13 million gal per year) plant in Columbus, Miss. The company told investors that it hoped to double the capacity at the Columbus location, at an estimated cost of $225 million.
The company had cash reserves of just under $12 million. But, it had one asset that is incredibly valuable – the backing of venture capitalist Vinod Khosla. Khosla has agreed to fork over $50 million – half of it likely to come from his own personal funds – to seed an investment strategy that may bring in other deep pocketed parties such as an industrial partner or traditional lender.
KiOR makes gasoline and diesel (not ethanol) from cellulosic feedstocks (wood) via fermentation. Khosla was there at the company’s beginning – he helped midwife it into a startup in 2007 and invested in it before – and now after – its IPO in June 2011. The company went public at $15 a share in its pre-production, pre-revenue era (it is now trading around $2.50).
With the Columbus plant, KiOR is in the very first crop of producers of cellulosic biofuels. Investors love that the company’s output is not subject to blend walls the way ethanol production is. But getting steady-state, high levels of output from a first-of-its-kind facility is pretty much unheard of in the second-gen biofuels industry.
And so KiOR is hoping it will produce 1 million gal this year, as it does the start-stop-fix-start thing. That’s why it is interesting that rather than hold out to generate revenue from Columbus I, KiOR plans to use what has been learned already to literally double down on its bet. Interestingly, part of the motivation to build the Columbus II plant is the availability of cheap railroad ties at that location.
In the press release Khosla (who owns a majority stake) stands by his company:
“While KiOR has faced normal start-up issues at the Columbus I facility, I believe that the Columbus I facility has proven that KiOR’s technology can meet and over time exceed the technology performance metrics of approximately 80 gallons per bone dry ton I expected for 2015, driving toward the ultimate goal of producing 92 gallons of hydrocarbon fuels (or over 150 gallons of ethanol equivalent) per bone dry ton of biomass, particularly given the Company’s continued progress in research and development. I believe that KiOR’s proprietary technology platform is substantially better, and can produce hydrocarbon fuels at lower cost, than any other currently visible biofuels fermentation technology, cellulosic or otherwise, that I am aware of. I expect that cash costs per gallon (excluding depreciation) on an energy content basis at the two Columbus facilities should be lower than today’s corn based ethanol. I also believe that KiOR’s cellulosic fuels, which have a higher per gallon energy content than ethanol and can integrate seamlessly into the existing hydrocarbon fuels infrastructure, will provide a biofuel alternative without blendwall issues that is more attractive than ethanol, considering both production costs and logistical efficiencies.”
That’s rather a lot of very specific declarations by the normally Zen-like master of Cleantech VC. But others also sound pretty darned enthused about the company. Stock analysts Pavel Molchanov at Raymond James and Edward Westlake of Credit Suisse both rate the stock as outperform though they acknowledge that investors are jittery.
Once Columbus I and then Columbus II are up and running, both analysts seem very comfortable with the company’s production cost structure. In the meanwhile, Molchanov says investors’ worries should be quieted by Khosla’s confidence.
“By pledging an additional $50 million – an anchor as KiOR finalizes its long-term financing package – Khosla guaranteed KiOR’s financial security for at least six more months, which should set jittery investors’ minds at ease. Khosla’s status as one of the nation’s wealthiest VC investors means that his (yet again reaffirmed) backing for KiOR is analogous to Elon Musk’s support for Tesla and SolarCity, which in the past, went through their own periods of facing a skeptical market.”
You can read more about Khosla’s long-term investing strategy in biofuels on the Wall Street Journal’s Venture Capital Dispatch blog. In addition, Jim Lane at Biofuels Digest writes about how difficult it is for outsiders – and even insiders – to understand the true status of a ramp-up like KiOR’s.
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